Monday, April 13, 2009

Blurring Unemployment Statistics

Above are the unemployment statistics for the Cariboo over the past 15 months.  Currently, the Cariboo has the second highest unemployment rate in the province, second only to the North Coast-Nechako which has unemployment at 11.1%.

Is unemployment in the Cariboo currently 10% as suggested by these data above from BC Stats? No, not really.  These numbers, while indicated for specific months, are actually averages of the previous three months.  Statistians use three month averages to smooth out their data--everyone wants a smooth graph right?  Graphs that show gradual transitions make politicians less likely to hyperventilate and the public to panic.

Unfortunately, occasionally this does not reflect the situation in the real world.  This is one such occasion.

Data Source: Labour Force Statistics: BC Stats.  Plotted by me.

2 comments:

Will Dwinnell said...

"Graphs that show gradual transitions make politicians less likely to hyperventilate and the public to panic."

My belief is that this sort of "message control" is common in free countries, to say nothing of the sort of manipulation which goes on in more authoritarian ones. This prompts the question, though: To what extent are politicians and the general populace sensitized to dramatic news bu this practice? Might people react more intelligently to such information if they were trusted with less crafted messages more often?

Dr. Rob Higgins said...

Yes, the crafting of information leads to public distrust. Unfortunately:
1)no political party seems to offer an alternative;
2)those who are turned off by such crafting seem to express their frustration by not voting. Thus, political parties clear the field of non-partisans;
3)the ability to properly interpret data in context is lost.

Rob